American Talk

Campaign Notes: Another frontrunner

A few months ago there were no shortage of parallels between Barack Obama’s standing heading into a re-election year and that of one-term presidents George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter: high unemployment, a listless economy, and a widespread sense of malaise.

The omens were encouraging as Republicans prepared for their primary contest. There was a feeling that, like 2008 among Democrats, this nominating process was really the battle for the White House.

As so it may still be, but the grim determination characterised by the Republicans I saw heading to caucus in Des Moines, Iowa less than two months ago has been replaced by doubt.

Then, the Republican refrain was "We have to stop Obama." Now, it’s "We have to stop Romney (or Santorum or Gingrich)."

Instead of seeing Obama as Carter or Bush, Republicans saw more disquieting parallels.

They began to fret that they lacked a Reagan or Clinton; no, they were surrounded by latter-day Bob Doles, John Kerrys and John McCains — uninspiring compromisers, destined to suffer respectable but inevitable defeat.

At some point around the South Carolina primary, Mitt Romney certainly started looking more Dole-esque than Reagan-esque, and Christian conservatives in particular didn’t like what they saw, giving Gingrich his victory.

Romney rebounded in Florida, and for a day or so it seemed normal transmission had resumed.

But a series of gaffes and caucus losses in February has seen those furrowed Republican brows return.

Rick Santorum (Photo: Gage Skidmore)

Enter Rick Santorum, the only candidate to never really have his moment in the sun. (His win in the Iowa caucuses became a footnote when revealed two weeks later).

But this week the former Pennsylvania Senator is the national frontunner, challenging Romney in his home state of Michigan and in Arizona, both of which vote on February 28, and threatening to build a head of steam heading into Super Tuesday on March 6.

The question for me this week, as Romney’s inevitable negative advertising blitzkrieg is unleashed, is, will Rick Santorum emerge as another Reagan or another Pat Buchanan?

And as the Republican nominee would he be another Barry Goldwater?